Pointzilla Jan. 14th - Harden Trade Discussion, etc

In this newsletter, I'm going to cover the Harden Trade Discussion and who are the fantasy pickups, who struggles, who gets more value, and go over some more things from yesterday!

Hey everyone,

I started Pointzilla, a focal point for all fantasy basketball points leagues content, about a month ago and I started to feel like weekly podcasts were good but I wasn’t able to hit on daily news and send out content quickly enough to all my followers/supporters. I found substack and now intend to send out daily emails detailing the previous day’s events and games from a fantasy perspective, mainly for points leagues!

First, let’s talk about the Harden in the room…

Harden Trade Discussion:

Harden just got sent to the Brooklyn Nets in one of the biggest blockbuster trades the NBA has seen. Here is the full breakdown of the trade, as there were a lot of moving parts and I don’t want to miss any of it..

*Courtesy of Sports Illustrated!*

Big blockbuster trade but for fantasy points leagues, who wins? and who loses?

Winners:

Harden Owners: Owners who held onto Harden now have a motivated Harden on a team where he has elite teammates and almost no depth and no defense and all that equates to Harden having to ball out to score points and keep the nets competitive. Kyrie has been AWOL so Harden is gonna come in and steal those shots and Kyrie may struggle adjusting behind KD and Harden. I’d imagine the days of the 50 pt triple double are gone and Harden has a unique chance to play great team ball so I’d expect his points to go down, but still above 25 pts, but his assists to go up.

KD Owners: This stays kinda even, Harden is someone that has shown he can co-exist with other high usage players and so I doubt KD struggles or sees any regression of any kind. Assuming Kyrie stays out for some time, KD will be the exact same and probably not regress much when Kyrie comes back.

Oladipo Owners: Disclaimer: I own Dipo in a league but that’s not why I think we are going to win with Dipo due to this trade. The pacers had a lot of mouths to feed in rising superstar Sabonis, consistent and reliable Turner, and even Brogdon who has been shining this season with no injuries. Dipo looked like he was back to his former all-star self on the Pacers, and I think him going to the Rockets gives him more freedom and more shots to take. The combination of Wood and Wall allow Dipo to increase his usage and prove himself in a contract year.

LeVert Owners: LeVert was a great player on the nets who was balling out when Kyrie was out. He was looking like a real 6th man of the year candidate but then he got shipped to the rockets and then he got shipped to the pacers in the blink of an eye. I’m confident LeVert will find his stride on the pacers because T.J. Warren is out presumably for the rest of the regular season and now Dipo is gone so LeVert has so much usage to eat up and will probably start for the Pacers. I don’t see a reason why Pacers would trade for LeVert if they weren’t going to utilize him.

Losers:

Allen Owners (for now): Allen was sent to the Cavs for a second round pick. This was a masterclass in trade fleecing. If you want to fleece people, study how this trade went down. Allen was breaking out on the nets and had secured the starting job over DeAndre Jordan and then was suddenly shipped to the Cavs who already have a plethora of big men in Drummond, Nance, Love, and McGee. If I had to take a guess, I’d assume Drummond would be traded because the Cavs would rather keep the younger, more dynamic center in Jarrett Allen. Allen’s fantasy value goes down for the time being but may spike up once Drummond or Love gets traded.

Drummond Owners: This sucks because I also own Drummond in a league. Sigh. Drummond has been surrounded by trade rumors for a while now as an old school big that is only really good for rebounds and scoring. No real peripheral stats, and on an expiring contract. Cavs probably won’t want to pay Drummond the max next year, but that is what he will want so I think now with the addition of Jarrett Allen, Drummond is 100% going to be traded this season so the Cavs atleast get something back in return. Just a question of who wants to pick up an expiring contract for Drummond…
I’d imagine Drummond usage goes down and overall fantasy value goes down a bit unless he gets traded to a team that desperately needs a center. Trade now if you can!

Fantasy Leaders and Losers:

* Disclaimer: This list is based on ESPN’s default scoring format. Your league may have different scores for each player but going off ESPN’s list, these are the fantasy leaders and losers*

Leaders:

1. Luka Doncic - 88 fantasy points (statline: 34 points, 13 rebounds, 9 assists, 2 steals, 4 blocks, 14-25 from the field, 5 three pointers made)
   A masterclass from Luka and a a great way to continue to silence the haters as he turns in a dominant performance against the hornets. Porzingis being back and taking the second most amount of shots is also great news as Luka didn’t seem to regress or have any decrease in usage with Porzingis back. Luka almost got yet another triple double and showcased his excellent improvement on defense from last season. He is playing competent defense and has really taken it to heart to improve on that aspect over the off season and I think he is back in NBA rhythm and will be making a serious MVP push this year.

2. Damian Lillard - 84 fantasy points (statline: 40 points, 13 assists, 1 rebound, 3 steals, 11-23 from the field, and 6 three pointers made)
   Dame had a slow start in the first half but came back in the second half and decided to turn up the heat. Dame has always been an elite first round value pick and always ends up as top 5 value and we see why everytime he goes off. This year he did start a little slow, and people were concerned but the reason he started slow this season is he is passing the ball more and allowing CJ McCollum to playmake more and take more shots. CJ’s usage jumped from 25% to 29% this year, and Dame stays steady at 29% this year and last. My guess is this is happening because Dame knows come playoff time, he needs the team to be able to playmake without him as he is going to get double teamed and swarmed on defense. I wouldn’t worry too much about Dame, as he has a solid floor and potential to drop 80 fantasy points on any given night.

3. Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 61 Fantasy Points (statline: 37 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 15-23 from the field, 5 three pointers made)
   Nickeil seemingly came from out of nowhere to make top 3 on our fantasy leaders list from last night. He had a very efficient night while draining 5 three pointers. Other than points, Nickeil didn’t really offer much beyond presence in the paint for rebounds. Was a great pickup if you had a hunch or wanted to stream a player, but most likely a crazy good night that won’t be sustainable over time.

4. Giannis (I don’t wanna type his last name, ya’ll understand): 59 fantasy points (statline: 22 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 blocks, 7-15 from the field, 2 three pointers made)
   Nothing new from the Greek Freak here. He is just a dominant player on both sides of the game with the highest floor out of all the first round picks, and has an incredibly high ceiling as well. If your league rewards triple doubles and double doubles, then you were very very happy to get those extra points from Giannis tonight. He was very efficient from the field and had a dominant defensive perfomrance and personally I am glad to see him taking and making more 3 pointers this season. That increases his fantasy value easily if he can fix his 3 pt shot and his free throw percentage.

5. Jrue Holiday: 56 fantasy points (statline: 21 points, 5 assists, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, 1 block, 8-13 from the field, 3 three pointers made)
   Jrue Holiday was a great addition to the bucks due to his defensive prowess and leadership. Jrue has thrived on this bucks team and has been rewarding fantasy managers who drafted him early. He was very efficient from the field and was great defensively as well.

Losers:

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 15 fantasy points (statline: 17 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 5-12 from the field, 1 three pointer made)
   If you follow my podcast, you’ll know I mentioned that Shai was seemingly a breakout candidate this year and he very much is but he is not that great of a player that will perform against the best teams since he is the focal part of the thunders offense. The Lakers defense is ranked number 1 defense in the league right now so Shai was due for a bad night. I wouldn’t worry too much about this and just expect him to have bad games against good defenses (LAL, DAL, PHI, MIL, etc) and great nights against poor defenses (CHI, SAC, MIN, etc).

Favorite Waiver Wire Pickups:

Let’s look at some waiver wire pickups for tonight. There are no teams with back to backs since the golden state warriors were the only team with a back to back but then their game with the suns got postponed on Friday. They only play tonight now.

Here are some of my favorite waiver wire adds currently:

1. Deandre Jordan (C, BKN, 36% rostered on ESPN)
   Don’t think too hard about this one. Yes, DJ is not that good at basketball anymore and lost his spot to Jarrett Allen but JA is gone! It’s DJ’s spot to lose. He is the starting center and has many reason to improve. 1) Harden has a tendency to inflate big men’s values due to his elite passing and lob threat from anywhere on the court. 2) KD and Kyrie like DJ and want him to be the starter, so he gets minutes in the timeshare because the nets want to appease KD and Kyrie. 3) Did I mention Jarrett Allen got traded? 4) The first game Allen was gone, DJ went from playing less than 20 min a game to playing 29 minutes last night…he was perfect from the field and had 9 points and 12 rebounds. Yes it was the knicks but I think DJ will have some serious value going forward esp with Harden coming there now. Worst case, you just drop him but if it pans out it could be a godsend with all these injuries, COVID cases, and postponements.

2. Rui Hachimura (PF, SF, WAS, 52.1% rostered on ESPN)
   Rui is an easy add. Westbrook got injured again and is out for 4-6 weeks. Rui and other wizards players are all good adds due to increased usage over the next month. It’s still the Bradley Beal show and Beal may just go berserk and average 40 pts over the next month but look for Rui, Bertans, and other players to get increased usage over the next couple of weeks.

That is the end of my first newsletter, I hope ya’ll enjoyed and learned something!

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